The promise is that they can beat the experts at predicting inflation, elections, and FDA approvals. But right now, roughly 90 percent of the action is sports. Is this a future we want to bet on? Stephen Dubner speaks with, among others, the C.E.O. of Kalshi. (Part one of a two-part series.)

 

• SOURCES:
  • Robin Hanson, professor of economics at George Mason University.
  • Nicole Kagan, head of research at Kalshi.
  • Tarek Mansour, co-founder and C.E.O. of Kalshi.

 

• RESOURCE:
  • "Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets," by Anthony Diercks, Jared Dean Katz, and Jonathan Wright (Federal Reserve Board, 2026).
  • "Slowly, Then All At Once: What Mamdani's Victory Tells Us About Information Aggregation," (Kalshi Research, 2026).
  • "Futarchy: Vote Values, But Bet Beliefs," by Robin Hanson (2000).
  • "The Use of Knowledge in Society," by Friedrich Hayek (American Economic Review, 1945).

 

• EXTRAS:
  • "The Economics of Sports Gambling," by Freakonomics Radio (2019).
  • "How to Be Less Terrible at Predicting the Future," by Freakonomics Radio (2016).
  • "The Folly of Prediction," by Freakonomics Radio (2011).

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