For decades, teams have tried (and mostly failed) to predict which college quarterbacks will thrive in the pros. Is the science finally catching up? Stephen Dubner speaks with a scout, a psychologist, a data warrior, and a Hall of Fame quarterback who nobody wanted.  
 

• SOURCES:
  • Scott Goldman, sports psychologist, owner of the Athletic Intelligence Quotient.
  • Dan Hatman, director of scouting development at the Scouting Academy.
  • Stephen Smith, founder and C.E.O. of Kitman Labs.
  • Kurt Warner, Hall-of-Fame quarterback, N.F.L. Network analyst.

 

• RESOURCES:
  • "Head in the game: the impact of cognitive abilities on performance of National Football League quarterbacks," by R. Thomas Boone, Nicholas Zambrotta, Andrew Manocchio, and James Bowman (Frontiers in Psychology, 2025).
  • "The Quarterback Prediction Problem: Forecasting the Performance of College Quarterbacks Selected in the NFL Draft," by Julian Wolfson, Vittorio Addona, Robert Schmicker (Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 2011).

 

• EXTRAS:
  • "The Merger You Never Knew You Wanted," by Freakonomics Radio (2025).
  • "The Rooney Rule," series by Freakonomics Radio (2024).

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